India's inflation trajectory in the coming months will be influenced more by the geo-political situation due to the war in Europe and its impact on supply chains and commodity prices. However, the country is better placed than most to "weather the storm" and achieve growth of close to 8 per cent in the current fiscal year, the finance ministry said in its latest monthly economic report on Thursday. "Through the channel of imports, elevated global crude and edible oil prices now have a significant impact on India's inflation outlook. "Government measures to keep the prices of these commodities in check, along with the recent hike in policy rates by the RBI, are expected to temper inflationary pressures in the economy," the monthly economic report for April, drafted by the finance ministry's economic division, said.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Saturday said the new tax regime will benefit the middle class as it will leave more money in their hands. Talking to reporters after the customary post-Budget address to the central board of the RBI, she said it is not necessary to induce individuals to invest through government schemes but give them an opportunity to make a personal decision regarding investments. "...the way we allowed for standard deduction and also the rates which have been fixed, tax rates which have been fixed for different slabs, it has actually left more money in the hands of the people, the taxpayer, the household," she said.
Prospective buyers must make a well-considered decision regarding whether this is the right time to buy a house, particularly with home loan rates at near-peak levels, and the risk of job losses looming in many sectors.
The Indian aviation sector is on the cusp of a change as airlines look to induct a record number of aircraft. This, analysts said, will put the sector on a growth runway, though keeping it viable for only long-term investors. According to Vinit Bolinjkar, head of research at Ventura Securities, expectations of strong air traffic, coupled with low penetration, is the prime reason for a solid long-term outlook.
'If you look at the order books of capital equipment companies or money deployed on the ground, there is forward movement in terms of actual investment by the private sector.'
As the Ukraine conflict impacts the global GDP, India is projected to grow by 6.4 per cent in 2022, slower than the last year's 8.8 per cent but still the fastest-growing major economy, with higher inflationary pressures and uneven recovery of the labour market curbing private consumption and investment, according to a UN report. The UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs said in its World Economic Situation and Prospects (WESP) report released on Wednesday that the war in Ukraine has upended the fragile economic recovery from the pandemic, triggering a devastating humanitarian crisis in Europe, increasing food and commodity prices and globally exacerbating inflationary pressures. The global economy is now projected to grow by only 3.1 per cent in 2022, down from the 4.0 per cent growth forecast released in January 2022.
The accountancy giant said the rapid rise of the Indian economy with its young workforce would push it up from being the 10th largest economy in 2013 to the third largest by 2030.
The Indian economy is on the path of a durable recovery on the back of conducive monetary and credit conditions, the global headwinds notwithstanding, said a Reserve Bank of India (RBI) article on the state of the economy. Domestically, there have been several positives on the COVID-19 front, in terms of reduced infections and faster vaccinations, the article published in the RBI Bulletin November 2021 added. The Indian economy, the article said, is clearly differentiating itself from the global situation, which is marred by supply disruptions, stubborn inflation and surges of infections in various parts of the world.
While most economies contracted in the second quarter of 2020, the Chinese economy grew by 3.2 per cent.
One has to wonder what is so wrong with the European Union.
In April, the World Bank had projected India's GDP would grow at 6.1 per cent in the current financial year and at 6.7 per cent the following year.
At the same time, the UN said in a report, the performance of private investment remains a key macroeconomic concern.
RBI projects GDP growth in FY16 at 7.8 per cent, 30 bps higher than FY15. However, this comes with a downward bias.
Global funds, according to Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, are now beginning to pay more attention to India with the market now offering 30 companies with a market capitalisation over $25 billion.
As per OECD's September estimates, global growth was to be 3 per cent this year and 3.6 per cent in 2016.
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das on Thursday said the country's economy has recovered stronger than expected from the initial impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, but there is a need to be watchful of demand sustainability after the end of festivities. Speaking at the annual day event of Foreign Exchange Dealers' Association of India (FEDAI), Das said there are downside risks to growth across the world and also in India. It can be noted that the Indian economy contracted by 23.9 per cent in the first quarter of the fiscal year, and the RBI expects the economy to shrink by 9.5 per cent in FY21.
Indian economy is expected to expand at 8.5-9 per cent over 10-15 year time frame once the structural issues hampering growth are addressed by the government.
RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das on Friday called upon G20 nations to resolutely address the challenges, like threats to financial stability and debt distress that confront the global economy. Addressing the inaugural session of the meeting of G20 finance ministers and central bank governors, Das said although the outlook for the global economy has improved in recent months and there is now greater optimism that the world may avoid a deep recession and only experience slow growth or softer recession,"yet uncertainties lie ahead of us." "Together we must resolutely address the challenges that confront us, including those that are of medium to long-term nature such as threat to financial stability, debt distress, climate finance, fractures in global trade and strains on global value chains.
OPEC hopes lower fuel prices will stimulate more demand in the long run
The record breaking spree was led by index heavyweights, financials and metal stocks.
'If all goes well, we may well hit or even surpass the forecast growth rate.'
Top 10 trends for 2015 are deepening income inequality; jobless growth; lack of leadership; rising geostrategic competition; weakening of representative democracy; rising pollution in developing world; rising occurrence of severe weather events; intensifying nationalism increasing water stress and growing importance of health in the economy.
The Indian rupee is down nearly 2 per cent against the US dollar since the beginning of January 2019. Experts attribute the Indian rupee's relatively poor performance to a sharper-than-expected fall in economic growth in India.
India's economy grew 6.1 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2022-23, pushing up the annual growth rate to 7.2 per cent, official data showed on Wednesday.
Overall, the credit profiles of players will be supported by healthy balance sheets and liquidity. Prudence in capital and development expenditure, efficient working-capital management, and recent equity raising will help sustain credit metrics in FY22.
Reliance Industries raced to 52-week high on better than estimated earnings and announcement of bonus share.
China's economy, which suffered 6.8 per cent slump in the first quarter due to the coronavirus pandemic -- the worst in 44 years -- bounced back posting 4.9 per cent growth between July and September buoyed by the government's sweeping efforts to stimulate demand and consumption.
He says he does not share IMF's pessimism.
India's GDP growth for the current fiscal is expected to slow down to 4.8 per cent, a UN report has said, warning that the Covid-19 pandemic is expected to result in significant adverse economic impacts globally. The UN 'Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) 2020: Towards sustainable economies' said that Covid-19 is having far-reaching economic and social consequences for the region, with strong cross-border spillover effects through trade, tourism and financial linkages.
A new era of Indian equity market outperformance compared to China "appears to be dawning", according to Morgan Stanley. The firm has upgraded India to overweight in its Asia Pacific-excluding Japan (APxJ) list, making it their most preferred market not only in the region but also in the global emerging market (GEM) pack. India now holds the top position in this category, with an overweight of 75 basis points, a significant increase from nil previously.
While the economy seems to be on a firm growth path, the fight against inflation is not over yet. Shaktikanta Das seems to be in no hurry. After playing well through a five-year Test match, he doesn't want to get out hit wicket, observes Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
RBI must balance the need for improving domestic bank credit demand and respond to lower inflation.
As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to unravel in various parts of the country, the World Economic Forum on Monday announced the cancellation of its high-profile annual meeting for 2021 after postponing it at least twice along with two changes in venue. The next annual meeting will now take place in the first half of 2022, while the location and date would be determined after assessing the situation later this summer, said the Geneva-based organisation that has been hosting a yearly congregation of the rich and powerful from across the world in Swiss ski resort town of Davos for 50 years. This year's Davos summit was originally scheduled for January 2021, but was later moved to a different location in Switzerland, Lucerne, and then to Singapore with an August 2021 schedule.
'But unlike Bond who killed an individual, Israel is killing a nation.'
IMF cut its 2016 global growth forecast for the fourth time in the past year to 3.2 per cent, citing China's slowdown.
India's likely medium-term potential growth will almost certainly be markedly lower than that experienced in pre-pandemic years, warns Shankar Acharya, former chief economic advisor to the Government of India.
The sharp correction in the Indian markets from their peak levels has made valuations attractive, say analysts, who advise buying selectively, but only from a long-term perspective. Fifty-six of the Nifty 100 stocks, according to Mahesh Nandurkar, managing director at Jefferies, now trade below the 10-year historical averages, including stocks in financial, select auto, and pharma sectors. "Valuation (one-year forward consensus price-to-earnings, PE) has declined 25 per cent from October 2021 peak, almost matching the 33 per cent price-earnings contraction during the 2011 tightening cycle when repo rates went up by 375 basis points (bps) versus 250 bps this cycle.
The country's new economic roadmap highlights the importance of creating a virtuous cycle of investment, savings and exports in order to sustain rapid economic growth over the next five years.
Global growth, according to IMF, likely to be lower at 3.3%
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